Boston event

I will be out of town for a few days at two conferences in Boston. This includes the 2011 National Business Summit on Early Childhood Investment, sponsored by the Partnership for America’s Economic Success, at which I will be speaking on Friday. I may see some of my readers there. In any event, this conference is intended to work with various business leaders from around the country to discuss the business case for early childhood investments. It is hoped that conferences such as this will influence the dialogue around the country, including the dialogue in your local community, around these issues.

Early childhood programs are not just “feel good” programs to help the needy. These programs are also investments that have substantial “spillover” benefits upon all groups in the local community, including local businesses. The more people who embrace that type of thinking, the better.

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Early childhood programs and parental responsibility

My local newspaper, the Kalamazoo Gazette, recently had an interesting interview with the Speaker of the Michigan House of Representatives, Jase Bolger. According to reporter Julie Mack,

[Speaker Bolger] also expressed reluctance about spending more tax dollars on social programs for early childhood. He acknowledged the research that shows the value of early intervention services, but also he sees it as an area where government programs intrude on the role of the private and nonprofit sectors.

”It’s a very difficult balance,” he said. “Kids go hungry, so schools start feeding them. Kids get in trouble after school, so there’s after-school  [programs]. Parents don’t read to kids at home, so we give reading help at school. Parents don’t get kids ready for kindergarten, so we need preschool.”

”We turn to schools to do the things that parents aren’t doing” and it builds an expectation in parents that it’s really the schools’ responsibility, Bolger said. “It’s an unintended consequence of government doing too much.”

The print version of the article stopped there. The online version added one more crucial sentence:

This doesn’t mean that the state won’t expand early childhood programs, he added, “but my point is we need to be very careful.”

I think Speaker Bolger reflects an uneasiness that is common among some policymakers. Is government interfering too much when it engages in early childhood programs? Will government programs discourage parents from fulfilling their responsibilities?

What can be said in response to such uneasiness?

First, there is no evidence that publicly supported early childhood programs lead to poorer parenting. In fact, many early childhood programs seek to improve parenting. Good preschool programs seek to encourage parent involvement in their child’s education. Good home visitation programs, such as the Nurse Family Partnership program, center their program on empowering parents.

Second, much of what early childhood programs do involve activities that are difficult for parents to do completely on their own. For example, some of the social skills developed in preschool are difficult to develop outside of an organized group setting.  That is why private preschool enrollment rates are so high among families with over $100,000 in income.

Third, as with any additional program, it is always possible that a new program will substitute to some degree for what is already going on. For example, a free, universally accessible preschool program may attract some parents who otherwise would have paid to enroll their child in a private preschool. However, many middle class and working class parents cannot afford the high cost of high-quality preschool. Preschool programs with broad eligibility also allow integration of different income groups, which may help develop adults who can work with diverse groups.

Fourth,  the estimates of the high benefit to cost ratio for high-quality early childhood programs already account for whatever the programs’ effects are on parental and private activities. For example, the various studies on how state-supported pre-K programs affect kindergarten readiness already account for any possible effects on reducing enrollment in other pre-K programs.  The state pre-K program is being compared with whatever child care and preschool options parents use on their own if their child is too young to get into the state program.

Fifth, publicly-supported early childhood programs can be structured to encourage more parental and private sector responsibility. For example, state support can go to quality private pre-K programs as well as programs run by public schools. Parents with sufficient income can be asked to pay tuition on a sliding scale.

Sixth, I certainly agree that we should be careful in adopting any policy towards early childhood programs. Part of that policy should be to ensure accountability for results. We can design early childhood programs so that we regularly collect data on outcomes. In that way, the public can be assured that their funding is actually improving our society and economy. In addition, accountability encourages programs to be improved in their performance over time.

While we should be careful in adopting early childhood programs, there are also costs in doing nothing. Doing nothing means that we are not adopting programs that are known to improve the outcomes of former child participants as adults, that are known to have short-run and long-run positive effects in creating more and better jobs, and that are known to reduce crime. Every year in which we avoid action means another cohort of children without needed early childhood services. We know that the lack of such services will have a cost for both those families and for the broader society and overall local economy.

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The potential for pre-K in school turnaround strategies

Recently, Maureen Kelleher’s Education Week blog drew my attention to a report by Pre-K Now on school districts using pre-K to turnaround student achievement.  The report highlights such strategies for school districts in Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Missouri, North Carolina, and California.

Based on pre-K research, how much of a difference could pre-K make to the rate at which 3rd, 4th, and 5th graders pass state tests? In studies of the Chicago Child Parent Center program, the results imply that a pre-K program of this type, by itself, with no other changes to the school district, might increase the percentage of elementary school students passing state tests by 9 percentage points. But these results already include considerable “fade-out” of pre-K’s test score effects by 3rd, 4th, and 5th grades. (We know that even when test score effects fade out to some degree, other behavioral benefits may persist. But for school accountability measures, we must stay focused on test score effects.)  If school districts adopt policies that help minimize fade-out, it is easy to imagine that pre-K’s effects on passing rates on state tests could be considerably greater than 9 percentage points.  In addition, more intensive early education interventions than CPC may have larger effects.

(Note to policy wonks: This is based on calculations from Reynolds (1995) that the average effect size of CPC in 3rd, 4th, and 5th grade is 0.22. If the baseline pass rate on the state test is 50%, then an effect size of 0.22 implies that the percentage passing the state test will go up by 9 percentage points, e.g. from 50% to 59%. )

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Why we know more about the effectiveness of preschool than the effectiveness of third grade

State legislators sometimes are skeptical about the claims of any program’s advocates. So, when early childhood program advocates claim great results for these programs, state legislators may be resistant. Why should they believe the claims of advocates for early childhood programs more than the claims of other programs’ advocates?

One reason is that the evidence for program effectiveness is stronger for early childhood programs than for almost any other publicly supported program. The evidence for early childhood programs is stronger because these programs have been studied with data that has good “comparison groups” for program participants. The underlying reason is that because access to early childhood programs is currently limited, we can either create or find good comparison groups.

So, for example, we know more about whether preschool works than whether 3rd grade works. For preschool, we have two very good random assignment experiments with long-term outcome data (Perry Preschool and the Abecedarian Program).  Because not everyone gets access to free preschool, we have been willing to run experiments in which some individuals are lucky enough to get free access to preschool, and other randomly chosen individuals are denied access.

We haven’t been willing to do this random assignment experiment for 3rd grade, and we are unlikely ever to do so. It is easy to see that it would be difficult and morally problematic to flip a coin and assign some children to a “control group” that would be randomly assigned to not attend 3rd grade.

The restricted access to early childhood programs also helps us run good “natural experiments”. For example, because North Carolina’s Smart Start and More at Four programs were gradually implemented in various North Carolina counties, it was possible for Duke University researchers to do a rigorous study that linked the implementation of these programs to lagged effects on elementary school  test scores in various counties. It is rare for such a large intervention as these programs to be only made available to some geographic areas. For example, because everyone in North Carolina has access to 3rd grade, we can’t use geographic variation in access to 3rd grade to evaluate its effects.

Similarly, for the Chicago Child Parent Center program, because the program was only made available in some low-income neighborhoods, and not all, researchers have been able to use these variations to neighborhood access to rigorously evaluate the long-term effects of CPC.

Early childhood programs have some unusual patterns of access. These programs have enough political support that these programs have been tried at a large scale in some places at some times. On the other hand, as of yet early childhood programs don’t have enough political support to be universally accessible. This unusual combination of large-scale but partial access is inequitable.  But from a social science perspective, it has allowed for some powerful and rigorous evaluations of program effectiveness.

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Update

I will be out of town again for a few days. I don’t expect to resume regular daily posting until Wednesday July 13, although I may have a few thoughts to add before then.

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Responding to skeptics of early childhood programs as local economic development

I gave presentations on Tuesday, June 28, 2011,  to business summits sponsored by two of the Great Start Collaboratives in Michigan, in Cass County and Berrien County. I appreciate their interest in my work.

My prepared text tried to respond to various criticisms that skeptics have made of the case for early childhood programs promoting local economic development. This prepared text is available here. This speech draft provides about a 4000 word summary of possible responses to many of the criticisms made of early childhood programs, including:

(1) whether these programs truly help the local economy, not just participants;

(2) whether the research support for early childhood programs is reliable;

(3) whether the evidence suggests that early childhood programs can be run effectively at a large scale;

(4) whether these programs provide short-term benefits, and

(5) whether early childhood programs are only useful for the disadvantaged.

The draft speech also includes some comments on national and state funding trends for early childhood programs. There are some specific program suggestions for Michigan as well as local counties in Michigan, which would in many cases be applicable to other states.

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Why early childhood education benefits others in the local economy, not just program participants

Some skeptics about early childhood programs accept that these programs may be effective in increasing the future earnings of participants. But, a skeptic could say, even if former participants stay in the local economy, how does this benefit others in the local economy?

Skeptics with this view have an implicit model of the local economy. This implicit model has a fixed number of good jobs. Adding more high-quality labor simply adds more competition for the fixed good jobs, which may even be bad for already more-educated local residents.

But this is an incorrect model of how local economies work. Greater local availability of skilled workers helps all local workers. My productivity and hence my wage will go up if there are more skilled workers at my employer, which allows my employer to better introduce new technologies.  A business’s productivity may go up due to stealing skilled workers and ideas from other local businesses.  A business may be more competitive if its local suppliers have more skilled workers. These statements are backed up by urban economics research by Glaeser and Moretti.

As a result, having more skilled workers in a local economy helps workers at all skill levels in the local economy be more productive. Because of this greater local productivity and competitiveness, local economies with more skills will attract more job growth and in particular attract more good jobs.

Why should I be willing to pay higher taxes to invest in other people’s children? Because doing so helps a wide variety of groups in the local economy, not just former participants in these programs. There are large spillover benefits to greater participation in high-quality early childhood programs.

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Recent testimony by Art Rolnick

Dr. Art Rolnick, former research director of the Minneapolis Fed, recently testified before the U.S. Congress on early childhood programs as economic development programs.  The hearing and Dr. Rolnick’s testimony was requested by Senator Al Franken, who also questioned Dr. Rolnick.

Dr. Rolnick’s 2003 paper (with his colleague Rob Grunewald) was largely responsible for popularizing the idea that early childhood programs should be viewed as economic development programs. My book, “Investing in Kids”, is in large part aimed at documenting in great depth the economic development case for early childhood programs.

A brief video (five minutes) of some of Dr. Rolnick’s testimony, and Senator Franken’s questioning, is available via Senator Franken’s website. The testimony focuses on some of the strange economic priorities we have, in which funds are widely available for sports stadium projects (which I have commented on before), but not for early childhood programs.

Dr. Rolnick makes the following statement:

“It’s regularly acknowledged by the political system, by the populace, by educators, that the best investment we could have is making sure that all our at-risk kids start school healthy and ready to learn….[In Minnesota], they’re going to find a way to fund a $1 billion stadium for the Minnesota Vikings….For $1 billion, we could provide an endowed fund so that [in the Twin Cities], every poverty child could have a scholarship [for early care and education] and mentor starting pre-natal in perpetuity.”

As the hearing discusses, early childhood programs provide “win-win” benefits in that the entire nation benefits from a state’s investment in early childhood programs.  In contrast, competing for sports stadiums is closer to a zero-sum game, in which one state’s gain is offset by another state’s loss.  (I’ve commented on the national benefits of state business incentives in several blog posts, such as this one. I’ve also commented on the national benefits of early childhood programs.)

Senator Franken finishes off the video by saying:

“I prefer win-win to zero-sum”.

Dr. Rolnick has often been skeptical of government interventions in the market.  His strong support for early childhood programs is attributable to the rigor of the research evidence for these programs’ large benefits relative to costs.

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Designing better funding for early childhood programs

Steve Barnett and Jason Hustedt have a new issue brief for the National Institute for Early Education Research (NIEER), on financing early learning programs.  This issue brief analyzes many aspects of the financing of early learning programs. But I want to focus here on one key question:  what financing arrangements are most likely to provide sustained adequate support for high-quality early childhood programs?

Based on this issue brief, and my own reading of the evidence, funding for early childhood programs is most likely to be sustained at an adequate level if it is based on a formula that automatically provides so much per child eligible for a particular type of program. In other words, early childhood funding is more sustainable if the funding is part of an “entitlement” program.

For example, as Barnett and Hustedt discuss, Oklahoma has had sustained high levels of funding for pre-k for four-year olds. Oklahoma is the state that is closest to true universal access, with 71% of all four-year –olds in the state-funded pre-k program. With other four-year-olds in Head Start or private preschool, Oklahoma essentially has almost all four-year olds with access to high-quality preschool.  Oklahoma’s sustained high funding is in part due to pre-k funding being part of the state school funding formula.  School districts receive funding from the state of Oklahoma in part based on the number of four-year-olds enrolled in pre-k.

Under entitlement funding for early childhood programs, funding automatically grows as more children meeting eligibility requirements are enrolled.  Therefore, local programs can better respond to population growth or local needs.

Of course, even under “entitlement” programs, state legislatures can always change program eligibility rules or the funding amount per child. But the funding formula frames the political debate about early childhood programs in a way that is advantageous for early childhood programs. The formula endorses the belief that children in a certain eligibility category need this service, and need so much per child for an adequate quality service.  Cuts to eligibility requirements or funding per child can be more readily challenged as denying adequate services to a group that needs this service.

In contrast, if early childhood funding is provided through grants from a fixed size program, it is easier to cut the program without being accused of sacrificing needed services.  If the state legislature is providing $x for the program, with no explicit ties to children’s needs, then the grant amount seems arbitrary and easier to cut.

The advantages of entitlement financing is likely to not only be true for pre-k programs but for other early childhood programs. Even if an early childhood program is targeted at the disadvantaged, it is possible to finance it through an entitlement program that provides a funding amount per child (or family) for children meeting eligibility requirements who are provided with the specified service.

Setting up new entitlement programs is not easy. Policymakers are aware that entitlement programs are harder to cut, and easier to expand over time. Setting up a new entitlement program may require decisively winning the political debate over whether certain children need a particular service. Alternatively, it is possible to start with a funding formula that is of modest cost, but then over time expand the size and scope of the formula to cover additional children or a larger share of program costs.

If we believe that research shows that most or many children in a group will need a particular early childhood program service, then it makes sense to finance this program via an entitlement program with a formula that guarantees funding.  The funding structure of the program then matches the program’s rationale. In contrast, a fixed dollar allocation for a program implies that the program is a nice program, but is not really needed for most children meeting eligibility standards. Entitlement financing is more consistent with expanding programs so that they have the size and scope needed to have community-wide impact.

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Where is business community support for early childhood programs?

Well-known economist Nancy Folbre raised an important issue about the business community and early childhood programs in her recent contribution to the New York Times’ “Economix” blog. The issue is: why isn’t there more active business support for early childhood programs? At this time of looming budget deficits at all levels of government, such support is needed now more than ever.

Folbre acknowledges the arguments made by Nobel-prize-winning economist James Heckman, in my book Investing in Kids, and by the Chamber of Commerce and other business organizations, that high-quality early childhood programs produce high economic returns. But as she points out, early childhood programs have recently faced a wide variety of threats, including proposed cuts to Head Start, and actual and proposed budget cuts to early childhood programs in many states.  She then asks, “Why…hasn’t the business community thrown more of its political weight behind increased public support for early childhood education?”

Her explanation is that for some major businesses, perhaps the economic development arguments for early childhood programs are less powerful. Some globally-oriented businesses may feel that they can easily get skilled labor for a low cost in non-U.S. locations.  Within the U.S., in the short-term there may be less business concern about the supply of skilled labor because of our current high unemployment rate.  As a result, some interests in the business community may not place a high priority on expanding high-quality early childhood programs, compared to pushing for lower business taxes.

Folbre is quite right to point out the mixed interests of the business community. But we can view the glass as either half-full or half-empty. In addition to global businesses, there are many local businesses that are more dependent on a U.S. labor supply.  Furthermore, there are many locally-oriented businesses interested in the potential short-run boost to local property values provided by high-quality early childhood programs. Finally, while some businesses have a short-term perspective, others have a more long-term perspective. The U.S. economy will not always have such an excess supply of labor.

The point of making a strong business case for early childhood programs is not to expect all business interests to provide strong support for these programs. The point is to attract significant business support. This support is more likely to come from businesses with a long-term perspective. This support is more likely to come from businesses, including global businesses, that expect in the long-run to have some considerable portion of their labor force in the U.S. Finally, this support is more likely to come from businesses that have interests in local development and local property values.

I think it is actually easier to attract strong business support for early childhood programs at the local level.  At the local level, it is easier to make the connections clear between expanding early childhood programs, and increasing local economic development both in the short-run and long-run.  For example, you can see this in one of the links Folbre provides, which highlights how some Chamber of Commerce groups have supported early childhood programs at the state and local level.

It may also be easier to attract stronger business support for early childhood programs as the U.S. labor market recovers. We already have some economists and business leaders complaining about “structural unemployment”, that is that there are jobs available that lack sufficient qualified applicants. Although I think such concerns are currently over-stated, the increasing skill requirements of the U.S. economy in the long-term are likely to put more pressure on policymakers to increase the quality of the U.S. labor supply. Early childhood programs are a cost-effective way to increase labor supply quality.

Professor Folbre wrote the 2010 book “Valuing Children: Rethinking the Economics of the Family”.  This excellent book provides a broad perspective on why investments in children provide significant social benefits that are frequently undervalued.

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