New long-term estimates of the effects of the Abecedarian program

Recently, Frances Campbell and her colleagues have published a paper that provides new long-term estimates of the effects of the Abecedarian program. These estimates suggest greater long-run benefits of the Abecedarian program than were projected based on previous results at younger ages.

The Abecedarian program was an experiment conducted in the 1970s in North Carolina. This experiment studied a high-quality full-time child care and preschool program, from shortly after birth to age 5, targeted at disadvantaged children.  Because the experiment used random assignment to decide which children were in the treatment group versus the control group, we have good reason to expect that the treatment and control group children were on average the same in observed and unobserved characteristics, and that therefore any subsequent differences were due to the program.

The Abecedarian program was an extremely intensive and expensive intervention. Because the program involved full-time child care and early education for a five-year period, the program ended up costing over those five years almost $80,000 per child (that is, about $16,000 per year for five years). It is important to know whether such expensive intervention brings commensurate greater returns. Does going beyond a year or so of half-day preschool for disadvantaged children pay off for those children and society in better outcomes in adulthood and for the economy?

The Abecedarian program is most similar to the current Educare program. Educare centers have been sponsored by the Ounce of Prevention Fund, and the Buffett Early Childhood Fund, along with other foundations.

Up till now, results for the Abecedarian program were only available up to when the former participants turned age 21. Therefore, prior studies required using these age 21 results to project future educational attainment and earnings for Abecedarian participants. The latest paper provides follow-up information through age 30. These later results enable us to do long-term benefit-cost analyses based on more extensive follow-up.

For many readers, this latest academic paper will be behind a paywall (although the price for purchase is only $11.95). The main findings include that as of age 30, the Abecedarian program program had statistically significant and large effects on educational attainment. The point estimates also suggest that the program had large effects on earnings and income, but these effects were not statistically significant at the typically used significance levels. The Abecedarian program had no discernible effect on the percentage of participants with a criminal record, which contrasts dramatically with results from some other early childhood programs, for example with the Perry Preschool program, which had large effects in reducing crime.

The most noteworthy educational attainment effects are that the program raised average years of schooling completed by a little over 1.1 years, and increased the percentage of participants with bachelor degrees from 6% to 23%. These educational attainment effects are greater than one would have projected based on the age 21 results. (For example, based on the age 21 results, in simulations for my book, I had projected that the Abecedarian program would end up increasing the percentage of participants with bachelor degrees by 12%. This later paper suggests that the true effect is to increase the percentage of participants with a BA by 17 %.)

The earnings effects are statistically insignificant by conventional standards. Specifically, there is an 11% chance that the earnings effects could have occurred by chance even if the true earnings effects were zero, which exceeds the customary 5% cutoff for statistical significance. However, the estimated effects on increasing full-time employment rates are statistically significant. And the point estimates are that the program increased annual earnings from a little under $21,000 to a little over $33,000, an increase of over $12,000. This is a large effect on earnings.

Why are such large effects on earnings still statistically insignificant? This occurs because there is a lot of natural variation in earnings, and the Abecedarian study had a small sample size (52 in the treatment group and 49 in the control group in the study as of age 30). Given the natural variation in earnings, the program would have had to have truly huge effects on earnings for these effects to be statistically significant in this small sample. However, given that the program has statistically significant and large effects on both educational attainment and full-time employment, it seems quite plausible that the program does have large positive effects on earnings.

Finally, why does the program have no effects on involvement in crime, in contrast with the Perry Program? This is difficult to explain by program-specific factors, given that the Abecedarian program essentially is the Perry program plus additional child care and preschool, extending the intervention from half-day to full-day for ages 3 and 4, and adding in full-time child care from birth to age 3.  It seems more likely that the difference has more to do with differences between the community contexts of the two programs, North Carolina vs. Ypsilanti, Michigan.

How do these latest findings alter a long-term benefit-cost evaluation of the Abecedarian program? Based on results through age 21, in my book Investing in Kids, I estimated that each dollar invested in the Abecedarian program yielded economic development benefits for a state economy of $2.25. These economic development benefits are the increase in earnings per capita for persons who stay in the state, including both effects on former child participants, and effects on their parents.

I redid my calculations using the new, higher estimated effects on educational attainment based on the age 30 survey. These new estimates show an increase of economic development benefits, per dollar spent, from $2.25 to $2.53, or an increase in this benefit-cost ratio of over 10%.

However, the estimated benefits are even larger if one uses the point estimates for earnings effects. The estimated earnings effects of over $12,000 well exceed what one would expect based on an increase in educational attainment of only a little over 1 year. In fact, I calculate that based on the age 30 results for effects on educational attainment, we would expect an annual earnings effect at age 30 of only $4,117 dollars, about one-third of the point estimate of earnings effects in the latest study.

Does this larger earnings effect make sense? It seems consistent with results from the Perry Preschool Project. In the Perry Preschool study, the program had far greater effects on adult employment rates than one would expect based on its effects on educational attainment. (See Table 11 of my 2006 report.)  Specifically, Perry increased employment rates at age 40 about 7 times as much as one would expect based on effects on educational attainment.

One explanation of this pattern is that early childhood programs have effects on skills that are not fully captured by educational attainment effects. These additional skills could include soft skills that are important to success in the labor market.

If we assume the point earnings estimates at age 30 are true effects, and assume similar percentage effects on earnings at other ages, the estimated benefits of the Abecedarian program significantly increase. Under these assumptions, for each dollar invested in the Abecedarian program, there would be state economic development benefits of $3.49, a large increase from the previous estimate of $2.25. Of course, these much larger effects are based on earnings effects that are not quite statistically significant, so we should not place too much weight on these results’ precision.

The bottom-line of the age-30 study of the Abecedarian program is that it strengthens our confidence that Abecedarian-style intensive programs can have large benefits. There are real political barriers to targeted programs for disadvantaged children that cost about $80,000 per child.  But if these political barriers can be overcome, these intensive programs provide economic payoffs that more than justify their costs.

Posted in Early childhood program design issues, Early childhood programs, Economic development, Timing of benefits | 3 Comments

Generating good jobs: what role for government?

I have been asked by some persons my reaction to the recent New York Times article by Motoko Rich on state customized job training programs.

I have argued that state customized job training programs can be an effective way of promoting state economic development, which means higher employment rates and earnings per capita for state residents.  The article, on the whole, emphasizes the negative aspects of customized training programs.

The article focuses on North Carolina’s customized training programs. More specifically, it focuses on a customized training program for new workers at a new Caterpillar factory.

I would say that the article has a negative spin because the second and third paragraphs say the following:

“The primary beneficiary [of the training] is undoubtedly Caterpillar….Yet North Carolina is picking up much of the cost.”

The article then goes on to outline the arguments of critics of these programs, which include not only that the training mainly benefits the company, but also that some jobs that receive training subsidies may be low wage, or may disappear in a few years.

The key issue is the article’s assertion as fact that “The primary beneficiary is undoubtedly Caterpillar”.  There is some reason to doubt this assertion.

For example, in the particular case of Caterpillar, these are not low wage jobs. The training program costs $1 million, for 392 jobs with average annual salaries of $40,000.

As a result, the factory has annual payroll of around $16 million. There may also be some multiplier effects. The discounted present value of the increased payroll, at a 3% real discount rate, would be over $500 million.

Obviously if the Caterpillar factory would not have located in North Carolina “but for” the training incentive, the benefit cost ratio for this project is far greater than one from the perspective of North Carolina.  If the only benefits and costs we count are the increased earnings and the training costs, the benefit cost ratio would be over 500 to one.  From a U.S. perspective, the issue is whether the training subsidy played some role in affecting Caterpillar’s decisions about whether to expand in the U.S., and what kinds of jobs to create in the U.S.

Of course it is an extreme assumption to assume that a single subsidy of $1 million for training is sufficient to cause a 100% change in the probability of a business expansion decision. But there is research suggesting that there is at least some effect, on average, on these decisions.

As I review in chapter 5 of my book Investing in Kids, there is some research evidence, from a study  by my colleague Kevin Hollenbeck of Massachusetts’s customized training program, and from a study by Bill Hoyt, Chris Jepsen, and Ken Troske of Kentucky’s customized training programs, that customized training programs are at least 10 times as effective in increasing local earnings as typical business tax incentives.

My conclusion is that the ratio of the increase in present value of earnings due to a customized training program, to the program’s costs, might be about 30 to 1, based on these studies, and studies of the effectiveness of business tax incentives. This is obviously far short of 500 to 1. On the other hand, it suggests that a customized training program might provide considerable benefits to a state’s workers.

Is this true of North Carolina’s program? I don’t know, because I suspect benefit-cost ratios for customized training programs depend a great deal on the precise design of the program. I do not know of recent rigorous studies of North Carolina’s program, although it received some previous positive research many years ago in work by Paul Osterman and Rosemary Batt.

Customized training programs may work because they provide upfront assistance, which is more valuable to businesses than a tax break 10 years from now. In addition, in many cases,  a high-quality training program provided by a local community college may provide a service that is more valuable in its productivity benefits than it costs.  Finally, for smaller businesses, customized training may be difficult to afford or finance without some government assistance.

It is interesting that a more recent New York Times article, on Apple and its iPhone, by Charles Duhigg and Keith Bradsher, raised questions about what if anything the U.S. could do to compete with China for advanced manufacturing jobs.

It’s hard to see how the U.S. can compete with China for manufacturing jobs on the basis of wages. But in the article, Apple also seems to be complaining about a lack of suitably trained workers in the U.S.  Another competitive factor seems to be that the U.S. no longer has suitable clusters of suppliers to support some types of advanced manufacturing.

What, if anything, can the U.S. do to help compete for high-quality advanced manufacturing jobs in a global economy? It seems to me that at least part of the solution might involve customized training programs.

Such customized training programs might be more effective if tied to the development of industrial clusters. Customized training programs might also be more effective if targeted at small and medium sized businesses, which are less likely to be able to afford training on their own. Finally, customized training programs might be more effective if tied to manufacturing extension programs, which seek to help small and medium sized manufacturers develop and implement a comprehensive strategy for becoming more competitive.

Increasing economic development in the United States requires a comprehensive strategy. A key part of that strategy is the development of better labor force quality. At early ages, this can be done with programs that seek to build general skills, through high-quality early childhood programs and strong K-12 programs, particularly in early elementary school.

But at older ages, developing human capital in a cost-effective manner requires targeting skills development more narrowly at skills demanded in the labor market. Realistically, such market-oriented skills development is going to require involvement with individual businesses and their training needs.

We need to figure out how to pursue such involvement with individual businesses in a smart way that advances the broad public interest.  We should not automatically shy away from such involvement with individual businesses because it might sometimes involve subsidizing individual businesses.

Posted in Business incentives, Economic development, Incentive design issues, National vs. state vs. local | Comments Off on Generating good jobs: what role for government?

Do early childhood programs represent too much government intervention into the role of parents?

I’m continuing to provide brief answers to questions I have received when I have made presentations on early childhood programs.

Today’s question is: “Do early childhood programs represent too much government intervention into the role of parents?” Some voters and policymakers have a visceral reaction that makes them uneasy about government-sponsored programs becoming so involved in childhood development.

Early childhood programs do not replace good parenting, rather they help complement and strengthen parenting. Early childhood programs are important even for the best and most fortunate of parents, because these programs provide services that are hard for parents to replicate on their own.

The skills of getting along with peers and with authority figures are skills that can be better learned in organized group settings, such as those provided by preschool. Parents, and particularly upper class parents, increasingly realize this. That is why preschool enrollment rates are highest among parents earning above $100,000 per year in income. These parents can afford high-quality preschool, and they are buying it for their kids.

Preschool enrollment rates are next highest among families below the poverty line, who are eligible for Head Start. But enrollment rates show a “U-shaped dip” for families in between the poverty line and $100,000 per year in income. These parents find it hard to pay for high-quality preschool, which can cost around $5,000 per year for a program that provides 3 hours per day of services during the school year. A key challenge is how to help middle-class and working-class parents afford a service that can help complement and strengthen what they do as parents.

A good preschool program, in addition to helping children get better academic skills and social skills, also works to involve parents in the program, through encouraging parent visits to the school, and through frequent communication with parents. High-quality preschool strengthens parenting.

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How will investing in kids pay off in the short-run?

I’m continuing to do a series of posts that provide brief answers to questions I’ve received about early childhood programs.

Today’s question: “How will investing in kids pay off in the short-run? The major benefits of investing in early childhood programs would appear to occur 20 or 30 years in the future, when former participants in these programs have joined the labor force and entered their prime earnings  years.”

Short-run benefits of early childhood programs include cost savings due to a reduced need for remedial programs in K-12, such as special education.

Another important short-run benefit is that high-quality early childhood programs are increasingly important in attracting parents with valuable skills to a state.

We already know that parents care about school test scores in choosing a location. We know that from evidence from the housing market on what increases housing prices. Of two otherwise identical houses, the one zoned to an elementary school with the higher test scores will sell for more.

Even if parents don’t know about the availability and quality of early childhood programs, higher quality early childhood programs will attract parents and drive up property values by raising elementary school test scores.

If one takes the known effects of preschool on school test scores, and the known effects of school test scores on property values, each dollar of annual spending on preschool will raise property values by $13. That increase in property values represents parents voting with their feet.

A state that can attract parents will experience both increased property values and a better quality labor supply in the short-run.

Posted in Early childhood programs, Timing of benefits | Comments Off on How will investing in kids pay off in the short-run?

How does a state’s investment in early childhood programs pay off for the state?

I’m continuing to provide brief answers to questions I’ve received at presentations I have made on early childhood programs.

Today’s question is the following:

“How does a state’s investment in early childhood programs pay off for the state? We live in a mobile society. If our state invests more in young children, won’t most of them end up just moving elsewhere?”

Answer: Americans are not as hyper-mobile as people sometimes think. Although many Americans move, over 60% of all Americans spend most of their working career in the same state in which they spent their early childhood.

If we are able to better develop the skills of children in our state, our state will in the long-run have a labor force with higher skills. This higher skill labor force will attract businesses.

We live in a world where businesses can easily ship inputs and outputs all over the world. But it’s harder to ship workers. Businesses still need to locate where they can readily find workers with the skills they need. If the local labor force is higher quality, this is a key competitive advantage for a state or local economy.

This higher quality labor force will entice businesses to locate in the state; it will help improve the competitiveness of a state’s existing businesses, which will make it easier for them to gain market share and expand; and a higher quality state labor force will encourage business start-ups, because these start-ups will know that skilled workers will be available for their needs.

As a result, higher quality early childhood programs will attract more and better jobs to a state’s economy. These more and better jobs will increase per capita incomes, increase  property values, and increase state and local government receipts more than the need for added state and local government expenditures.

Posted in Early childhood programs, Economic development, National vs. state vs. local | Comments Off on How does a state’s investment in early childhood programs pay off for the state?

How does the short-run intervention of early childhood programs lead to such large long-run effects?

I’m trying this month to provide brief answers to some questions that have come up when I’ve given presentations on early childhood programs.

Today’s question: “How does the short-run intervention of early childhood programs lead to such large long-run effects?”  In other words, it’s quite extraordinary that even one school year of half-day preschool at age 4 can significantly increase the participant’s future adult earnings. What’s the logic behind such long-run effects of short-run interventions?

The key to the long-term effects of high-quality early childhood programs is that such programs don’t just teach kids a few extra letters or numbers. The programs also provide kids with better soft skills – how to get along with other kids, how to get along with teachers, how to plan and wait their turn.

The better skills that kids get in preschool and other early childhood programs lead to them doing better in kindergarten, which leads to even better skill development in kindergarten. And so on – success at each age leads to further skill development and success at the next age level.

In other words, if you develop a child’s skills early enough, and in a comprehensive enough manner, the skills you develop will not depreciate over time, but rather will appreciate over time.

These better hard skills and soft skills will then translate in adulthood into a person who is more productive in the workplace, and who is a more valuable employee. The former preschool participant will benefit from higher earnings. The business that hires this former preschool participant will benefit from a more productive employee.

This more productive employee will not only have better literacy and math skills but also will have better soft skills. They will work better in teams with fellow employees, get along better with supervisors, relate better to customers, and be better able to plan and lead on the job. These soft skills are at least as important as hard skills to success on the job, and to a productive local economy.

Posted in Early childhood program design issues, Early childhood programs | 2 Comments

Why should I believe that early childhood programs work?

Over this month, I’ll provide brief responses to some questions I have received at various talks I have given about early childhood programs.

Today’s question is “Why should I believe that early childhood programs work? After all, every program claims it works.”

You should believe that early childhood programs work because we have better evidence than for other programs. For early childhood programs, we have random assignment experiments in which we have (metaphorically) flipped a coin, and said heads you go to preschool, tails you don’t.

We know more about whether preschool works than about whether third grade works, or whether tax cuts work – because we haven’t been willing to flip a coin to randomly assign some children to not attend third grade, or some businesses not to receive a tax cut. With random assignment, we know that the kids who went to preschool, and those who didn’t, are comparable in all their characteristics, both those we can observe, and those we can’t observe.

We’ve followed up on these programs by asking the participants in these experiments annoying questions about their lives many years later: whether they were assigned to special education in K-12, whether they graduated high school, whether they had problems with the legal system, and what kind of career and earnings they have as an adult. The verdict from these rigorous scientific experiments, similar to experiments in medicine, is clear: high quality early childhood programs work, in that they significantly improve educational attainment and adult earnings.

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National initiatives and grassroots political support for early childhood programs

The federal government recently announced the state winners for its Race to the Top – Early Learning Challenge (ELC). ELC will provide support for states to better coordinate their early childhood programs, provide better assessment of program quality, and provide more consistent universal assessment of kindergarten readiness.

I’m sure that this funding will support useful services and program improvements in the funded states. But what does this all mean for the advancement of early childhood programs in the United States? This blog post will briefly consider that question. (For some other takes on this issue, see Sara Mead’s article in The New Republic, and her other blog posts, as well as ongoing coverage from Early Ed Watch at the New America Foundation.)

My view is that the goal should be for early childhood programs to be of sufficient scale and quality to significantly affect the economic development of our local and national economies, and to significantly affect the distribution of economic opportunities in the United States.  I think it highly unlikely that this goal will ever be achieved through a centralized federal program. There is too much political resistance to federal involvement in early childhood for the federal government to be a consistent partner. Furthermore, from a substantive point of view, early childhood programs should be attuned to local circumstances and values, and should be flexible enough to learn from experience, which is difficult to do with a centralized federal program.

What ultimately will determine the fate of early childhood programs? In my opinion, these programs’ ultimate success rests on the extent of grassroots political support for these programs. Are a majority of voters willing to support increased state and local taxes for these programs?

What determines grassroots political support? Two determinants seem crucial. The first determinant is research support for early childhood programs – such as the evidence from the Perry Preschool program, the Abecedarian program, the Nurse Family Partnership program, the Chicago Child-Parent Center program,  and the various state preschool studies by the National Institute for Early Education Research and others.  I think this research support has helped mobilize the support of many “elite groups” for early childhood programs.

Part of this research support is translating this research evidence into language that some of these elite groups find relevant. For example, there is my own research that translates the research on early childhood programs into effects on state and local economic development goals. Such research extensions are relevant to business groups and many political leaders.

The second determinant is the size of the early childhood program. Grassroots political support depends upon the percentage of all children who have slots in the program and hence can potentially benefit from the program.  The higher the percentage, the more voters can see themselves as having a stake in the program’s future.

The question I am uncertain of is whether the federal funding for ELC will significantly advance these two determinants. I don’t think that the funding for ELC is sufficiently large by itself to significantly expand the percentage of children in funded programs in the assisted states.  However, perhaps ELC will trigger political changes that will significantly expand funded slots in some of these states.

ELC can potentially provide important support for early childhood programs if its data-gathering requirements lead to new, credible evidence on the effectiveness of a diverse array of early childhood programs.  More evidence of successful models would be useful, even if accompanied by evidence of unsuccessful models.

It is unclear to me whether the ELC will actually lead to such credible evidence. I suspect the answer depends to some degree on some yet-to-be-made decisions by the federal government, and by participating state governments, in how the ELC program is actually implemented. To what degree will the additional data gathered be used for rigorous evaluation?  This is unclear.

I hope that the federal and state government officials in charge of ELC use the enhanced data provided in a way that significantly advances our research knowledge about what works. This improved research evidence is not only needed from a scientific perspective, but also to help advance the policy goal of high-quality early childhood programs that are large enough to make a difference.

Posted in Early childhood programs, National vs. state vs. local | Comments Off on National initiatives and grassroots political support for early childhood programs

Accountability systems need to improve quality, not make things worse

The New York Times op-ed by Helen Ladd and Ed Fiske that I linked to the other day was based in part on a much longer recent paper by Helen Ladd. That paper is well worth reading. Professor Ladd reviews the research evidence on the link between poverty and educational achievement, discusses some of the many problems with the No Child Left Behind accountability system for K-12 education, and suggests alternative policies.

Professor Ladd’s bottom line includes the following: “The most productive step for the federal government in the short run would be to eliminate No Child Left Behind”.  Among the reasons for her position is that  the narrow test-based accountability systems of NCLB does not seem to be effective in improving education, and has some  “undesirable side effects”, as Ladd puts it.  Among these undesirable side effects is what Ladd describes as a “narrowing of the curriculum”.

I agree that narrow test-based accountability systems are a mistake. To give one example, I heard a speech earlier this week by the Indiana State Superintendent of Public Instruction, Dr. Tony Bennett. Dr. Bennett talked about Indiana’s main goals in improving K-12 education, which included ratcheting up the rigor and enforcement of the state’s accountability system which seeks to grade schools and identify failing schools. Dr. Bennett emphasized that this accountability system would focus on test score value-added of schools.

I asked Dr. Bennett whether the Indiana accountability system would adjust for differences in “summer learning loss” between schools located in high poverty communities versus schools in affluent communities. His frank answer was “No”. His argument was that making up for summer learning loss should be left up to the discretion and creativity of individual school districts. It was up to districts to figure out how to offer summer school, extended school years, or other programs to make up for summer learning loss.

One problem with such an accountability system is that it clearly does not assign grades to schools based on their true quality.  Two schools that are doing an equally good job in increasing learning during the school year may get significantly different grades based on how much their students gain or lose in learning during the summer.

A second problem is that our current levels of school funding are not intended to provide adequate funding for preventing summer learning loss. We have designed funding sufficient to provide school for around 180 days or so, not for year-round schools or a robust summer school program. Therefore, the freedom that schools have to address summer learning loss is not matched by resources to actually do much about summer learning loss.

One can imagine accountability systems that adjust for summer learning loss. But the reality is that almost any test-based accountability system that is likely in practice to be adopted will probably be quite imperfect.

For example, suppose we had a test-based accountability system that predicted year to year student learning gains by school as a function of a wide variety of school characteristics, including the percentage of students eligible for free and reduced price lunch. Even such a system would suffer from the problem that free and reduced price lunch status is only a very rough proxy for student socioeconomic status and other student characteristics that predict achievement gains. The ability of social scientists to find rough adjustments for school characteristics that work on average does not mean that the resulting measures are highly accurate for each and every school.

If the test-based accountability system provides imperfect measures of school quality, then one has to worry about unintended consequences and side-effects. For example, as Ladd and others have pointed out, an accountability system that is only based on a certain group of limited tests, and that has significant consequences for funding or regulatory sanctions, will inevitably lead to schools overly focusing on improving performance on the tests. If the tests are not a satisfactory overall measure of what we want schools to do, this focus is problematic.

Critics often point to the difficulty of measuring student performance in the arts, as well as the fact that testing programs tend to be focused on reading and math and not other subjects. But there’s also the issue of “soft skills”. If schools should in part be trying to teach students how to deal with peers and leadership figures, and how to work in teams, and if such “soft skills” are hard to assess through standardized tests, then accountability systems that are narrowly based on test scores gains will tend to discourage schools from adequately developing soft skills.

Is there an alternative? Yes. Ladd argues for a more holistic type of evaluation. This would be based on “the school inspectorates that are common in many countries around the world”. These systems involve regular outside evaluation and performance auditing of schools. They include tests, but also include human judgment, and observations of what is going on in the classroom. I would add that I would include information from surveys of parents, teachers, and in some cases students to see how they perceive the school’s performance.

This discussion is not only relevant to K-12 education. For early childhood education, there is even greater importance for a holistic approach to evaluation of preschool quality.

As I have outlined before, we should regularly collect data on student learning in pre-K. This includes collecting data from age-appropriate standardized tests, at pre-K entrance and kindergarten entrance. These tests can be used to get a rough idea of student progress that is due to the pre-K program versus progress just due to aging.

But we need to be careful about how we use such data. First, we need to make sure that we collect data not only on hard skills, but on soft skills – how much progress students are making in their behavior and other social skills.

Second, these test score measures should not be the sole or even the primary gauge of quality for a specific preschool. Rather, the evaluation process for individual preschools should be based on a regular audit that includes observations of classroom practices and policies, and interviews and surveys of a teachers, administrators, and parents.

Accountability in education is important. But the devil’s in the details. Let’s get the details right.

Posted in Early childhood program design issues, Early childhood programs | Comments Off on Accountability systems need to improve quality, not make things worse

School reform and early childhood education

Yesterday Julie Mack, the education reporter at the Kalamazoo Gazette, posted my somewhat lengthy thoughts on education reform.

The essay posted at Julie’s blog originally was an email to a friend of mine. She was running a forum at her church on school reform. The church group was reading several articles on school reform. The articles leaned towards the notion that “school reform” was simply a way to destroy public schools.  My essay/e-mail was trying to say that I thought the “school reform” movement did have some positive ideas to offer.

Education reform is so important that we should be willing to try a number of approaches to improving the educational achievement of our children. This is not because schools have worsened over time. Rather, the imperative for our society is that our economy is demanding greater skills. At the same time, there are more children who start out from backgrounds with significant disadvantages. As a result, our educational system needs to provide much higher value added than once was required.

School reforms address issues with teacher quality, school quality, and accountability. Because teacher quality and school quality is so important, we certainly should be willing to try reforms that attempt to improve teacher quality and school quality.

However, we should frankly admit that we do not have research-based and research-proven methods to improve teacher and school quality, and ensure educational accountability. What role do higher salaries for teachers play? Does merit pay make sense? If so, how should it be best designed to build up teacher morale and cooperation rather than undermining it?  How important should test score gains be in teacher evaluations and school evaluations? How can such evaluations best control for the mix of students and for summer learning loss? These are all issues on which our knowledge is more imperfect than we would like.

Therefore, in adopting school reforms, we should adopt a frankly experimental attitude. We should try out possible school reforms. We should try to be careful to design such reforms to maximize their strengths and minimize their weaknesses. And these reforms need to be modified as results come in. Accountability should apply to school reforms as well as to schools.

On the other hand, there are other policies that we know will improve educational achievement. Among those are high-quality early childhood education programs.  Here, we do have research-proven knowledge of what works.

We know that high-quality pre-K programs can significantly improve educational achievement at kindergarten entrance, by 10 to 25 percentiles. We know that these programs can increase high school graduation rates by 10 to 20%. We know that pre-K programs can improve adult earnings by 7 to 20%.  We know that high-quality pre-K programs can improve future earnings for both students from low-income families, and students from middle-income families, by similar dollar amounts. This similar dollar effect on different income groups is a much greater percentage boost to future earnings prospects for disadvantaged students.

Furthermore, we know that pre-K programs can be successfully carried out by a large number of different states and school districts. These programs do not need to be run by genius administrators and supervised by the leading researchers to be successful. A typical American state or school district can implement a pre-K program that is high enough quality to make a difference. The pre-K program does need to have a reasonable class size, reasonable quality teachers, and a reasonable quality curriculum. All of this costs money, but does not unduly strain administrative talent.

Pre-K can be successful even if we don’t reform the K-12 system. For example, the evidence suggests that the Chicago Child-Parent Center program was successful with most students continuing on to Chicago Public Schools. With all due respect to Chicago Public Schools, this obviously is a school district facing many challenges that has by no means solved all its problems.

However, expanded pre-K will be more successful if we also improve the K-12 system. There is some evidence that there are positive synergies between early childhood education and the K-12 system. The rate of return to investing in pre-K will be higher if the K-12 system is stronger, and the rate of return to investing in the K-12 system will be higher if the pre-K system has a higher percentage of kids in high-quality preschool programs.

We should experiment with school reforms to improve the K-12 system. These also include school reforms that try the somewhat blunt approach of simply increasing learning time, for example by lengthening the school year or having mandatory summer school.  Adding learning time will cost additional resources. If we truly want to do everything we can to improve school quality, we will have to include reforms that cost money.

In sum, educational improvement is so important that we should be willing to try a wide variety of reforms. But this should include reforms that cost money, when those reforms have strong research evidence of cost-effectiveness. Early childhood education has such research evidence for cost-effectiveness, and should play a leading role in any educational reform efforts.

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